As of now the ruling Coordination Framework Alliance led by Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani appears to be firm in saddle but forces within and outside in the region and in the West are active to oust “Iraqi Shia government” because of its proximity with Tehran, which despite decades of economic hardship and western sanctions, had invested millions of dollars in large numbers of infrastructure projects and exporting gas and oil, writes M Hasan, who recently visited Iraq and Iran.
With October 2025 national elections in Iraq fast approaching the Zionists and Takfiri-Wahabi forces seem to have joined hand for change in Shia ruling coalition in the trouble-torn country, which has been trying to regain economic and political strength after decades of terrorist regime of Saddam Hussain. This is also largely aimed at dislodging Iran from Iraq. The two are the only Shia governments in the middle east.
As of now the ruling Coordination Framework Alliance led by Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani appears to be firm in saddle but forces within and outside in the region and in the West are active to oust “Iraqi Shia government” because of its proximity with Tehran, which despite decades of economic hardship and western sanctions, had invested millions of dollars in large numbers of infrastructure projects and exporting gas and oil. Over the years Iraq has become its first customer. According to an estimate economic exchanges between the two countries are more than 12 billion dollars per year. More Shia religious shrines of Karbala and Najaf (both in Iraq) being strong binding force with Iranians the religious tourism is also a way of interdependence between the two states. Around five to six million Iranian pilgrims visit Iraq Karbala, Najaf and other areas every year.
Prime Minister Iraq Sudani
However, this seems to be anathema to non-Shia Takfiri population which has grown up under the “anti-Shia” regime of Saddam Hussain over the decades, when this community faced genocide and Arab world and the West turned Nelson’s eye. In Iraq, Shia Muslims constituted the majority, estimated at 64-69% of the population, while Sunni Muslims make up approximately 29-34%. This translated to roughly 61-64% of the total population identifying as Shia and 29-34% as Sunni.
I have personal experience of this “hate-phenomenon” during my visit to Karbala in February last when some Takfiri violent youth stopped my group to offer prayer at a spot in densely market palce. No doubt this just reflected the deep anger and anguish they nurture over the loss of power after the fall of Saddam regime in 2003. The hate against the Iraqi majority community has also turned against Iran which has become the savior of the country when other Arab nations dumped it to the mercy of terrorists (ISIS). Still, it is Iran along with Iraqi security forces which is holding fort against these terrorists in some parts of the country. “The majority community has not forgotten the scene when these criminals had blown up the tomb of Shia Imams Ali al-Hadi (the 10th Imam) and his son, Imam Hasan al-Askari (the 11th Imam) causing death and destructions in Samara” commented an Iraqi cleric during my visit to now highly fortified place.
Thus, sectarian fracture runs deep in Iraqi society. It is despite the fact that efforts are being made by top clerics of Najaf to bring the warring factions together. However, taking advantage of the prevailing situation and with an eye on October 2025 national elections moves are afoot to further create dissension so that political domination of the Iraqi Shias could be eliminated. But it appears to be farfetched because of the community’s now retrieved political representation. It is unlikely to lose it by rampant infighting among warring Shia political factions. In view of the past they appeared to be united on power-sharing.
Interestingly a recent article in Foreign Affairs “Iran Could lose Iraq” has elaborately argued and extended guidelines how its could be achieved. Which gave ample indication that forces not only in hostile Sunni Arab world but elsewhere, which serves the interest of Zionism in the region, are gearing up for regime change.
However Iraqi online news magazine Asharq Al Awsat recently quoting a study wrote that “Prime Minister Sudani will emerge with a powerful coalition that makes up a third of Shiite seats in parliament. The study pointed that that Sudani had in recent months forged “flexible” alliances with Shiite powers. The source said the Coordination Framework had not fully understood his ability to form such alliances given the deep rivalry between the parties that make up the coalition. Sudani has effectively emerged as a figure to reckon with in the Shiite equation and could emerge as a stronger player in parliament after next year’s elections.
The study predicted that former PM Nouri al-Maliki’s State of Law coalition is set to gain 25 seats in the parliamentary elections, Ammar al-Hakim’s Hikma movement and former PM Haidar al-Abadi’s Nasr coalition 21, and leader of the Asaib Ahl al-Haq party Qais al-Khazali and leader of the Badr organization Hadi al-Ameri 24, while the remaining seats will be won by other Shiite forces.
The study ruled out the possibility of the Sadrist movement, led by influential cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, winning more than 70 seats in the elections, should he decide to take part in the vote. Sadr quit political life in 2022. He had won over 70 seats in the 2021 elections.
The Framework expects Sadr to win 60 seats “at best”, said the sources. They noted that Sadr was no longer the sole figure in Iraq with the ability to mobilize the masses. Maliki and others had decided to adopt this approach since the provincial elections.
(M Hasan is former Chief of Bureau Hindustan Times, Lucknow, India)
