The AIMIM has difficult task to widen ground in UP as it would have to convince its viability to Muslims as against formidable SP, which as of now octopus like control over the community. It would be watched with interest whether AIMIM, either in alliance or alone, would be able to divide anti-BJP votes and that could also help in consolidation of the pro-Hindutav forces, as UP heads towards 2027 electoral battle, writes M Hasan.
Lucknow, November 24: After winning five seats in Bihar assembly election with 1.85 percent votes All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) president Asaduddin Owaisi has now threatened to put spoke in the Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav’s applecart in 2027 UP assembly elections. However, knowing fully well the ground realities about the Muslim support to his party Akhilesh Yadav has so far maintained stoic silence over Owaisi’s harangues.
Even though the shape of 2027 INDIA alliance in UP is not very clear as after the miserable performance of the Congress in Bihar the SP is extremely cautious about electoral tie-up with the party in 2027. In 2022 assembly election there was a broad alliance between SP, Congress and Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) and few splinter groups. The Congress however could win only two seats and RLD, after winning eight seats (2.9% votes) had joined the BJP. The SP with around 33 percent vote had won 111 seats.
Then AIMIM’s performance was miserable. The Muslim community, which stood rock solidly behind the SP, had completely ignored the AIMIM which had fielded 103 candidates but failed to win any seat and got only 0.49 per cent. Its highest vote 36460 (16.27 per cent) had come from Mubarakpur in Azamgarh from where Shah Alam alia Guddu Jamali was in fray. Guddu Jamali was BSP’s leader of opposition in assembly and defected to SP before the election but after failing to get SP ticket he joined AIMIM. It was personal image of Guddu Jamali which fetched large vote for AIMIM.
It is thus too early to visualize about any possibility of a “third front” comprising BSP, AIMIM and some small parties. The BSP chief Mayawati has already announced to go alone in UP elections. In 2022, the AIMIM had made efforts to have alliance with smaller parties but the move failed to take off. Now after much-talked about indirect tie-up between BSP and AIMIM in Bihar, where the BSP winner Satish Yadav (Ramgarh) had put up posters of Owaisi along with Mayawati at a press conference after victory, a narrative is being generated in UP about the two parties coming together to take on SP.
While AIMIM banners were also seen in BSP candidate’s procession in Ramgarh, the AIMIM is reported to have asked its supporters to vote for BSP where it had no candidate. Whereas in Bihar, AIMIM had an alliance with the parties of Chandrashekhar Azad and Swami Prasad Maurya. The BSP’s total vote percentage in Bihar was 1.62. Owaisi has also indicated about have electoral tie-up with Pallavi Patel of Apna Dal and Swami Prasad Maurya’a Rashtriya Shoshist Samaj Party (RSSP) in UP.
It may be recalled that following a report by a news channel in June 2021, Mayawati said, ‘This news is absolutely false, misleading and baseless. There is not even an iota of truth in it’. Mayawati had then firmly ruled out alliance with AIMIM in 2022 and she firmly stood by it. But now Mayawati has been desperately trying to get support of Muslim community in UP and Owaisi appears to be keen on getting rid of tag of “B team” of BJP. It would be possible if he succeeds in entering into an alliance with the BSP. However, the BSP sources said that she has been evaluating the reaction of her core vote bank of Jatavs whose proximity with the Muslims in rural areas has not been very cordial.
Since the larger impact of this much-talked about alliance could be on nearly 100 seats from Shahjehanpur to Saharanpur in west UP, it would be watched with interest whether Jatavs would be ready to vote for AIMIM. Like AIMIM, the minority community in UP has also dubbed BSP as “B” team of the BJP. “So two B teams are making efforts to come together to take on SP”, commented an SP leader on the condition of anonymity.
There is no doubt that an alliance between BSP and AIMIM could cause major consternation in the SP and the possibility of division in Muslim votes could not ruled out. But an alliance with smaller parties minus BSP is unlikely to yield desired results for Owaisi, who is willing to “teach” a lesson to Akhilesh Yadav. AIMIM had approached Bihar Mahagathbandhan for alliance and sought just six seats. But Yadav clans refused as they feared “Hindu backlash”.
Under the prevailing highly communalized situation in UP, Mayawati, who has been making hectic efforts to woo backward communities and get back lost Dalit vote, would thus evaluate deeply before shaking hands with Owaisi. But behind the door deal, as happened in Bihar on some seats, could be a possibility. She has summoned a rally on December 6 in Noida to mobilise support base in west UP. During the last few elections there has been considerable erosion in support of BSP, which came down to around 12 percent in 2022 and further gone down to nine percent in 2024 Lok Sabha election. The fall in percentage reflected that even “Jatavs” had migrated to BJP in the state. The BSP has thus an uphill task to bring back lost vote back and then move on to its winnable position. Over the years most of the prominent Muslim leaders have migrated from the BSP to other parties.
The AIMIM has even the task more difficult as it would have to convince its viability to Muslims as against formidable SP, which as of now octopus like control over the community. Senior SP leader Azam Khan’s long incarceration and damage to the promotion to his higher education plan in Rampur have considerable “emotional vibes” for the community. Thus, it would be watched with interest whether AIMIM, either in alliance or alone, would be able to divide anti-BJP votes and that could also help in consolidation of the pro-Hindutav forces, as UP heads towards 2027 electoral battle.
(M Hasan is former Chief of Bureau, Hindustan Times, Lucknow)
