After negligible performance in 2022 assembly election and 2024 Lok Sabha election the BSP has now been making last-ditch effort to remain relevant in UP’s politics in next election. After two successive poll debacle BSP has turned into rudderless boat in body-politic of the state. While there has been large-scale migration of Dalit vote to BJP in previous elections, the desertion of Muslims, upper caste and OBC for greener pasture turned the party into dire distress, writes M Hasan
Lucknow, October 9: Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) has planned mega rally in Lucknow on October 9 on death anniversary of the party’s founder Kanshi Ram. The BSP supremo Mayawati, who has already overhauled the organization with appointment of her nephew Akash Anand as number two in the party, plans to rejuvenate the party before 2027 UP assembly election.
After negligible performance in 2022 assembly election and 2024 Lok Sabha election the BSP has now been making last-ditch effort to remain relevant in UP’s politics in next election. After two successive poll debacle BSP has turned into rudderless boat in body-politic of the state. While there has been large-scale migration of Dalit vote to BJP in previous elections, the desertion of Muslims, upper caste and OBC for greener pasture turned the party into dire distress.
After dismal performance of BSP in 2022 UP Assembly election in which the party with 12 per cent vote could win only one seat and further setback in 2024 Lok Sabha elections, there is now massive race between ruling BJP and Samajwadi Party to grab Dalit voters. Thus, Dalits icons are being appropriated by the two parties to reach out to the community, which has been dithering in its support to BSP during the last four elections.
However, it is too early to forecast that it is end of the road for the BSP in the state. With 1.17 crore vote in 2022 (12.9 per cent), Mayawati had then announced to gear up the party afresh and make some “bold move”. Pointing out that Dalit community, particularly the 12 per cent Jatavs supported her party, Mayawati then said “I am proud of Dalits who stood with their missionary movement and the party leadership. I appeal to the party supporters not to let down their morale”. But she was not happy with the Muslims, whom she had publically blamed for poll debacle in 2022 assembly elections. Mayawati had blamed “Muslim vote” for the dismal performance of her party in UP assembly elections. She said shifting of Muslim vote to Samajwadi Party has caused debacle of BSP which could win just one seat with 12.9 per cent vote.
As of now the BSP is at the crossroads in the politically important Uttar Pradesh. With declining vote bank during the last three elections the survival of the party is at stake. It is not that only Muslims and Brahmins, who had propelled her to power with full majority in 2007 assembly election, had deserted the BSP in 2022 election, Mayawati’s core Dalit vote has also been showing signs of departure to the BJP since 2014 Lok Sabha elections. After the 2022 results even Mayawati accepted that Dalit voters shifted to BJP because of the fear of arrival of “Jungle raj” of Samajwadi Party. The CSDS-Lokniti poll survey had indicated that 21 per cent Jatavs (Mayawati’s community) and 41 per cent non-Jatavs (Dalits) had supported the BJP.
Though the Dalit community has been closely aligned with the BSP for a long time, the resurgence of BJP in 2014 had changed Dalit dynamics as the Sangh Parivar laid stress on reaching out to Dalits which yielded positive results as large chunk has moved to the BJP. But 2022 UP election analysis by CSDS indicated that even core Jatav base of Mayawati had also decreased. While 87 percent Jatavs had voted for Mayawati in 2017, the electoral support came down to 65 per cent in 2022 poll. Of 66 sub-castes in Dalit community Jatavs constituted around 50 per cent and other prominent sub-castes are Valmiks, Khatiks, Pasis, Koeris and others. These sub-castes had revolted against Mayawati after 2007 assembly election when after coming to power Mayawati paid more attention to Jatavs- a caste which she also belongs. Now there is a feeling in the BSP that Jatav vote, which had gone to BJP, may comeback to the party if Mayawati succeeds in re-organizing party with alliance of some non-Dalit communities.
While losing election in 2012, the BSP had won 80 seats with around 25 per cent vote. But in 2017 the number went down to 19 with 23 per cent total vote share. In 2019 Lok Sabha election when SP-BSP joined hands she got ten seats with 19 per cent vote. Muslims had fully supported the alliance. It may be recalled that despite Mayawati joining hands with BJP to become chief minister twice in the past and even campaigning for the BJP in Gujarat election in 2002, the Muslim community extended full support to her in 2007.
But after 2019 Lok Sabha elections there had been disenchantment in the community because of her soft posturing towards the BJP, which led to desertion of around half a dozen Muslim MLAs in 2021 to SP. She was largely seen as playing second fiddle to the BJP in UP and keeping quite on Muslim issues and even now there appears to be no change on the minority’s issues. The BSP was absent from NRC-CAA protests also. The UP narrative against BSP in the community was set in during CAA protest. It is for this reason the community has veered round to the view instead of “indirectly support the BJP via BSP, it should directly support it”.
On the other hand, the Samajwadi Party through PDA (Pichada, Dalit, Alapsankhyak) platform has been making deft efforts to make dent into BSP’s vote bank. It octopus-like hold over the Muslim community is continuing and any shift in 2027 appears to be far-fetched. For BSP 2027 UP elections are crucial for political survival of the party. It is “do-or-die” battle which will commence with October 9 rally at Kanshi Ram memorial in Lucknow.
(M Hasan is former Chief of Bureau Hindustan Times, Lucknow)
