While media hype is being created to divide Muslim votes, the community is quietly watching the development. Whether the community will be swayed away by AIMIM pro-Muslim narratives or largely stay back with non-BJP opposition parties is not yet clear. However, the possibility of Owaisi getting space in INDIA bloc or in Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) appears to be far-fetched as these parties also depend on other electorates. Both political formations are reportedly opposed to touch AIMIM even with barge pole as it could prove counter-productive and alienate other section, writes senior journalist M Hasan.
Lucknow, January 30: The All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) is back into hot political discourse in Uttar Pradesh, which is gearing up for assembly election in 2027. The social media and especially Youtubers have been desperately trying to generate heated debate over AIMIM prospects in UP. The AIMIM president Asaduddin Owaisi is feeling emboldened after party’s success on five assembly seats in Bihar in November 2025 and 125 corporators seats in just-concluded 29 municipal corporations in Maharashtra.
The AIMIM plan for UP also came up for discussion recently at the Samajwadi Party’s MPs conference presided over by the party chief and former Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav. Some of the Muslim MPs were of opinion that an action plan was required to counter impact of AIMIM, if any, in the state which could prove harmful in 2027. Owaisi, who is in “SP ko dekh lenge mood” (will see SP) has resorted to emotionally mobilize the community. Amid slogans, especially meant for “religious occasions” the AIMIM has been making desperate efforts to widen base in UP. These slogans, raised during Mumbai civic elections by AIMIM, have gone viral on social media to present counter narrative. The religious slogans by AIMIM winner Sahar Sheikh, her father Yusuf Sheikh and others at victory procession in Mumbai have become talking point in UP. It has also cautioned the non-BJP opposition in UP.
While media hype is being created to divide Muslim votes, the community is quietly watching the development. Whether the community will be swayed away by AIMIM pro-Muslim narratives or largely stay back with non-BJP opposition parties is not yet clear. However, the possibility of Owaisi getting space in INDIA bloc or in Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) appears to be far-fetched as these parties also depend on other electorates. Both political formations are reportedly opposed to touch AIMIM even with barge pole as it could prove counter-productive and alienate other section. The BSP chief Mayawati has already announced to go alone in UP elections. While SP has Muslims under its PDA umbrella BSP has been making efforts to bring back the community to its fold.
While the civic election victory of AIMIM on 125 seats against a total of 2869 corporators in Maharashtra is inconsequential and cannot be compared with vast assembly constituencies in UP, the vote percentage of AIMIM in Bihar was 1.85. In fact, for Muslims in Bihar the political condition is different from UP. With Chief Minister Nitish Kumar ruling to roost and providing protection to the community over last two decades, the community could afford to test AIMIM viability and give few seats but UP is different ballgame. The Muslims have also been voting from Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (U). Hence the community in UP is has been quite cautious in supporting the AIMIM.
Even though there is consternation among SP leaders about the AIMIM, the leadership seems to be quite confident that the party still has wide support from the community. The senior party leader Shivpal Yadav said that Muslim community was fully with the SP. The leadership has also deployed party’s Kairana MP Iqra Hasan to mobilize people in western UP. Soft and suave, Iqra Hasan is quite popular in western UP. This is the region where AIMIM has been making efforts to make dent into SP’s vote bank. The BSP has also started Muslim Bhaichara committee conferences to reach out to the community. The party’s youth face Akash Anand (Mayawati’s nephew) is set to launch drive in western UP from next month.
In 2022 assembly election there was a broad alliance between SP, Congress and Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) and few splinter groups. The Congress however could win only two seats and RLD, after winning eight seats (2.9% votes) had joined the BJP. The SP with around 33 percent vote had won 111 seats. Then AIMIM’s performance was miserable. The Muslim community, which stood rock solidly behind the SP, had completely ignored the AIMIM which had fielded 103 candidates but failed to win any seat and got only 0.49 per cent. Its highest vote 36460 (16.27 per cent) had come from Mubarakpur in Azamgarh from where Shah Alam alia Guddu Jamali was in fray. Guddu Jamali was BSP’s leader of opposition in assembly and defected to SP before the election but after failing to get SP ticket he joined AIMIM. It was personal image of Guddu Jamali which fetched large vote for AIMIM.
The AIMIM has thus the task difficult as it would have to convince its viability to Muslims as against formidable SP, which as of now octopus like control over the community. Senior SP leader Azam Khan’s long incarceration and damage to the promotion to his higher education plan in Rampur have considerable “emotional vibes” for the community. Thus, it would be watched with interest whether AIMIM, either in alliance or alone, would be able to divide Muslim votes that could also help in consolidation of the pro-Hindutav forces, as UP heads towards 2027 electoral battle.
(M Hasan is former Chief of Bureau, Hindustan Times, Lucknow)
