The results are clear indications about fragmentation of the decades-old Lalu Prasad Yadav’s formula of Muslim-Yadav combination. There is a feeling in the Muslim community that Yadav clans cannot take their support for granted. Bihar is an alarm bell to Samajwadi Party’s similar M-Y formula in UP as BJP has already raised its own slogan of M-Y (Mahila-Youth). Moreover, in UP Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) has re-started efforts to build-up Dalit-Muslim combination, writes M Hasan.
Lucknow, November 15: It is a clean sweep for the BJP-Janata Dal (U) led National Democratic alliance in nearly 52 Muslim dominated seats in Bihar assembly elections. The NDA’s resounding victory in these constituencies has at least indicated two factors: cracks in RJD-led Mahagathbandhan’s M-Y (Muslim-Yadav) formula and the community’s move to look beyond this alliance.
As compared to 2020 performance of NDA on these 52 seats when it had won 20 of them with vote share of 34.8 percent, this time it has succeeded in winning 39 seats with vote share of 42.2. Though BJP, which had won 15 seats in this region, remained static on this figure in 2025 also with slight fall in vote percentage from 18.2 to 17.9, the JD (U) has made major jump from just three seats in 2020 to 16 seats with three percent increase in vote share from 13.2 to 16 percent. Other constituents of the NDA have also improved tally from two in last elections to 8 seats and increase in vote share from 3.4 percent to 8.3.
The high victory of JD (U) candidates on these Muslim dominated seats has given ample indication about the community’s unwavering confidence in the leadership of Nitish Kumar. So far as Bihar Muslim votes are concerned Nitish Kumar is an asset for the NDA as the community has faith in him. Moreover Nitish Kumar’s “Das Hazari” (Rs 10,000) to women of castes, creed and religion and other poll promises seem to have worked favorably for the NDA in this region also.
On the other Rashtriya Janata Dal’s tally on these seats has gone down from 18 (2020) to just five. However, decline in vote percentage is marginal: from 23.9 percent (2020) to 22.1 percent now. Similarly, the Congress which had won six seats in these areas has come down to three with vote share of 11 percent from 10.5 percent in last assembly election.
But the important message from 2025 Bihar election is that Asaduddin Owaisi-led AIMIM has emerged as the sole major representative voice of Muslims in the assembly. Of the total 11 seats won by Muslim candidates five have gone to AIMIM, followed by three to Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), two to the Congress and one to the Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (U).
It may be mentioned that from the NDA bloc, the JD (U) had fielded four Muslim candidates and Lok Janashakti Party (RV) had given ticket to one. The JD (U)’s Mohd Zama Khan has succeeded in retaining his Chanipur seat. From Mahagathbandhan bloc there were 30 Muslim candidates in the frays, which was consisted of 18 from RJD, 10 from Congress and two from CPI (ML). The MIM had fielded 29 candidates in Muslim dominated region including Seemanchal, which alone returns 24 legislators. The NDA has however wrested 14 seats followed by Mahagathbandhan and MIM five each in Seemanchal. The high victory rate of NDA indicated division of votes of the minority community. The MIM has defeated four Muslim candidates either from JD (U) or Mahagathbandhan and on one seats MIM won against the BJP nominee. The five seats won by AIMIM are Baisi, Jokihat, Bahadurganj, Kochadhman and Amour. But the total vote share was 1.85 percent.
The division of Muslim votes in some other constituencies is visible as MIM had also fielded candidates from where the community’s population was between 25 to 40 percent and these seats have gone to the NDA. During the election campaigning the AIMIM was dubbed as “B team” of the BJP. A charge Owaisi has strongly denied.
But there was simmering discontent among Muslims, particularly in Seemanchal over the ticket distribution in RJD. While RJD’s Tejashwi Yadav had given nearly 50 tickets to Yadavs who are 14% of the population, Muslims with 17.7 percent population got 18 tickets. The resentment further grew among the Muslims after the announcement of name of Vikissheel Insaan Party’s chief Mukesh Sahni as deputy chief minister’s candidate. A section of Muslim community had openly come out against it and it seems delayed damage control by Tejashwi Yadav failed to yield positive results.
The results are clear indications about fragmentation of the decades-old Lalu Prasad Yadav formula of Muslim-Yadav combination. There is a feeling in the Muslim community that Yadav clans cannot take their support for granted. Bihar is an alarm to Samajwadi Party’s similar M-Y formula in UP as BJP has already raised its own slogan of M-Y (Mahila-Youth). Moreover, in UP Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) has re-started efforts to build-up Dalit-Muslim combination. Emboldened over Bihar results Owaisi has announced to contest UP elections also. The Congress, which has been badly mauled in Bihar, is in dire distress in UP. Whether the Congress was liability or an asset for Mahagathbandhan in Bihar is debatable. But the bickering between RJD and Congress during campaigning had not gone well with electorate.
(M Hasan is former Chief of Bureau, Hindustan Times, Lucknow)
