The downfall of the Congress has been consistent since 1989 assembly elections when the party was ousted from the power forever. In the absence of committed vote bank there appears to be no road ahead for the party in near future. Reports indicated that overhauling of the state organization is on the cards to make it battle ready for 2027, but in the absence of acceptable faces in State task seems to be difficult, writes M Hasan
Lucknow, October 20: The patriarch of backward politics and a Lohiate Mulayam Singh Yadav indeed proved “prophetic” when he made a cryptic comment after being installed as the UP Chief Minister for the first time in December 1989. Yadav, who rode to power with the outside support of the BJP, then said “Now Congress will never come to power in UP”. Mulayam Singh Yadav, then leading Janata Dal, had taken over power after defeating the Congress. Narain Dutt Tiwari was the last Congress Chief Minister.
Now even after 36 years, when the UP Congress has been making desperate efforts to regain the lost ground, Yadav’s pronouncement still rings true. Over the last more than three decades political landscape has shifted dramatically. Yadav’s ascendency to power with the decline of the Congress and sharp rise of caste-based regional parties has created a piquant situation for the party. Since then the Congress has not only become a rudderless boat in UP’s politics but has been forced to play second-fiddle to the regional parties—mainly Samajwadi Party and BSP.
The downfall of the Congress has been consistent since 1989 assembly elections when the party was ousted from the power forever. In the absence of committed vote bank there appears to be no road ahead for the party in near future. Reports indicated that overhauling of the state organization is on the cards to make it battle ready for 2027, but in the absence of acceptable faces in State task seems to be difficult. The Congress, which had won 269 seats with 39. 25 percent vote in 1985, successively came down to 2.4 percent vote with just two seats in 2022. Except in 2009 Lok Sabha election, when the party’s fortunes were upbeat, Uttar Pradesh also favourably responded by returning 21 MPs with 18.3 percent, which had indeed taken some senior party leaders by surprise.
When a central party functionary, known for his “hearty laughter” was told by some media men about the good prospects of the Congress in UP during the 2009 campaigning he looked “askance” and quipped quietly, “even ten seats would save our Izzat (prestige)”. An analysis of election data indicated that the Congress last eight elections, both assembly and Lok Sabha since 2007 got 8.6 percent (2007, 22MLAs), 18.3 percent (2009, 21 MPs), 11.6 percent (2012, 28 MLAs), 7.5 percent (2014, two MPs), 6.3 percent (2017, 7 MLAs), 6.31 percent (2019, One MP), 2.4 percent (2022, 2 MLAs) and 9.46 (2024, six MPs). The party’s move to deploy AICC general secretary Priyanka Gandhi, who had come up with catchy slogan of “larki hun lar sakti hun” (I am a girl I can fight), also miserably failed to galvanize the party in 2022. Out of 403 Congress candidates, only two could win and four of them succeeded in retaining their deposits. Remaining 397 candidates forfeited their deposits, that tells the future of the party in the state. Because of Priyanka Gandhi’s slogan the Congress, had fielded 159 (40 per cent) women candidates. But it was worst ever performance of the party in UP. The two winners were Aradhana Mishra Mona (Rampur Khan) in Pratapgarh and Virendra Chaudhury (Pharenda) in Maharajganj in east UP.
With dismal performance in state assembly elections the UP Congress has been facing crisis of existence in the state. The emergence of bipolar polity, which appears to continue in 2027 assembly also, the prospects of the Congress are apparently extremely bleak in politically significant state. The leader of Opposition in Lok Sabha Rahul Gandhi, who represents Rai Bareli Lok Sabha constituency, has been making forays into the state and his last week visit to Fatehpur to meet the Dalit family members of a victim of lynching, is no doubt indicative of making efforts to retrieve lost ground in Dalit community. Before the party went in oblivion it also played “Brahmin-Dalit-Muslim” card deftly to be in power for a long time but those were the days of tall leaders from these communities. These communities have now politically fragmented. While the Samajwadi Party has octopus like grip over Muslims, Brahmins and a section of Dalits have joined Saffron brigade. Mayawati has been making efforts to bring Dalits back BSP’s fold. The backward communities are at present largely divided between SP and BJP. In fact, Mulayam Singh Yadav deft backward politics proved disastrous for the Congress.
(M Hasan is former Chief of Bureau Hindustan Times, Lucknow)
