The issue, which has snowballed into major controversy causing disenchantment in the UP’s minority’s community, seems to have all the potential to further adversely affect the political fortune of beleaguered Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, who has been facing an uphill task to retain power after November results, writes M Hasan
Lucknow, October 7: “I love Mohammad” drive and subsequent the police actions in Kanpur and Barielly have travelled to poll-bound Bihar with the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) chief Asaduddin Owaisi trying to make it a political issue at an election rally in Bihar’s Bahadurganj on Monday.
However prevailing ground realities indicated that it could politically help Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) led by Tejashwi Yadav more than AIMIM. Owaisi, no doubt, has set tone and tenor of his campaign from Bahadurganj.
Even as the issue, which has snowballed into major controversy causing disenchantment in the UP’s minority’s community, seems to have all the potential to further adversely affect the political fortune of beleaguered Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, who has been facing an uphill task to retain power after November results. While Bihar’s Muslim electorates are reportedly angry over newly enacted central Waqf Law and BJP’s unmitigated and continued “communal” rhetoric in UP and elsewhere, the community, which over the last several elections considerably supported Nitish Kumar, seems to have veered round the view that he (Nitish Kumar) would no longer be able safeguard their interest in the state.
In Kanpur and Barielly there was large-scale law and order problem and police action last month after the minority community took out “I Love Mohammad” banner and posters during a religious procession.
Despite alliance with the BJP, the Muslim OBC, EBCs and SCs in Bihar had been supporting Janata Dal (U) during the last several elections. But now there is hardly any primacy of Nitish Kumar in alliance. Moreover, in view of indifferent health India’s most successful and manipulative politician in Bihar seems to walking into political oblivion. Thus, in all possibility he would be a “mascot” rather than the vanguard of the NDA alliance in the state.
It may be mentioned that “caste factor” has always played dominant role in Bihar like its neighbour-UP. With 17.7 percent votes well-entrenched Muslim community is an important factor. Thus, apart from MY (Muslim-Yadav) combination, which Lalu Prasad of Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) formulated to rule in the state for nearly a decade, his son Tejashwi Yadav has moved ahead to make it “MY BAAP” adding Muslim, Yadav, Bahujans (SCs, STs,) Aghda (forward caste) aadhi Abadi (women) and the poor. It is like Samajwadi Party’s PDA (Pichchda, Dalit, Alpasankhyak).
Muslims in Bihar are divided into upper castes, BC, EBC and SC. “Lal Baigiye” (SC) Muslims are found only in Bihar and some bordering districts of Uttar Pradesh. Even though BCs, EBCs are in majority in minority community they have always voted as a community to avoid split in the vote. Of late the BJP has been making hectic efforts to win over OBC Muslims in UP and Bihar but voting pattern in 2022, 2024 (UP) and 2020 (Bihar) indicated hardly any encouraging results. In 2020 Bihar poll AIMIM had succeeded in garnering a chunk of Muslim votes in Seemanchal, which resulted into victory of five MIM candidates. It had also led to major setback to RJD. But now recent surveys indicated that RJD has now octopus-like grip over the community. For the community AIMIM is being seen not as a viable challenger but a ‘VOTE KATUA” a spoiler.
Moving beyond his father’s MY formula Tejashwi is looking on social realities with wider perspectives by making dent into JD (U) social engineering. In order to counter fast emerging RJD and NDA has come out with wide-ranging freebies, including cash dole out to attract women and other sections of the electorate. But the RJD has also promised similar cash and other bonanza if voted to power. No doubt November fight is tough with RJD apparently having an edge over the rival NDA.
Caste combination in Bihar: Upper caste: 15.5%, Muslims 17.7%, Yadav 14.3%, Kurmis/Kushwahas 7.1%, MBC/EBCs 36%, Paswan-Dusadhs 5.3%, Jatavs 5%, Vaishyas 13.1% and Musahars 3.1%.
(M Hasan is former Chief of Bureau Hindustan Times, Lucknow)
